With early voting set to begin October 20, the race to fill Texas’ 18th Congressional District seat is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history. A new poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards leading a crowded field of 16 candidates.

According to the survey, Menefee is the top choice of 27% of likely voters, followed closely by Edwards with 23%. Democratic State Rep. Jolanda Jones ranks third at 15%, while Republican businesswoman Carmen Maria Montiel leads her party with 6%. No other candidate polled above 4%.

The November 4 special election will determine who fills the seat left vacant following the death of U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner in March. Because multiple candidates from all parties are running, a runoff election is expected if no one secures more than 50% of the vote.

Researchers at the Hobby School note that the large number of contenders and several well-known Democratic figures make a runoff likely. Polling data indicates that in a potential head-to-head race, Menefee and Edwards are nearly tied, with 36% and 34% support respectively. About 20% of voters remain undecided.

If Jolanda Jones advances to a runoff, results show both Menefee and Edwards would hold significant leads over her—Menefee with 43% to Jones’s 26%, and Edwards with 44% to Jones’s 26%.

The survey of 1,200 likely voters, conducted October 7–11 in English and Spanish, also highlights shifting dynamics since July, when Menefee and Edwards were tied at 19%. The latest data shows modest gains for both, with Jones maintaining consistent support.

Among other candidates, independent George Foreman IV and Democrat Isaiah Martin each received 4% support. On the Republican side, Montiel continues to lead with 6%, followed by Carter Page at 3% and Ronald Whitfield at 2%.

Voter preferences also vary across demographics. Black voters are divided nearly evenly among Menefee (30%), Edwards (25%), and Jones (24%), while Democratic voters give Menefee a slight edge at 35%, followed by Edwards at 28% and Jones at 18%. Republican respondents favor Montiel with 23% support.

When asked about top national concerns, 44% of voters identified civil rights and civil liberties as their highest priority, followed by jobs and the economy (13%), health care (12%), and inflation and prices (11%).

The survey also found that if Texas’s new congressional maps are upheld for the 2026 election, much of the current Congressional District 9 could merge into District 18. U.S. Rep. Al Green, who represents District 9, received an 89% favorability rating among Democratic likely voters within the current boundaries of District 18.

The full survey results and analysis are available here. 

Election Dates:

Early Voting: October 20–November 1, 2025

Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2025