HOUSTON — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott may be telling Republicans not to panic about Attorney General Ken Paxton’s increasingly competitive race for the U.S. Senate, but there is one inconvenient little detail staring both campaigns squarely in the face:

James Talarico has made Texas competitive.

Appearing Sunday on ABC News’ This Week, Abbott confidently predicted that once Texans take a closer look at Democratic nominee Talarico, they will be “rushing to vote for Ken Paxton.” Abbott blamed Paxton’s sluggish general-election start partly on the costly Republican runoff against outgoing U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

But if Democrats were nowhere close to winning Texas, Republicans probably would not need the governor of Texas spending national television time explaining why they eventually will.

That is the political plot twist of 2026.

Talarico, the 37-year-old state representative and former public-school teacher, has transformed himself from an ambitious young Texas Democrat into a nationally watched Senate contender. His campaign has leaned heavily into a kitchen-table argument: Texans are working hard, yet housing, groceries, health care and raising a family increasingly feel beyond reach.

And voters appear to be listening.

An August 9–10 Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey of 1,000 likely Texas voters showed Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%, with the difference well inside the poll’s three-point credibility interval. Talarico held a commanding advantage among voters under 50, 53% to 38%, while Hispanic voters favored him by 19 points.

Another July poll from Texas Public Opinion Research had Talarico ahead 45% to 40%. Individual polls differ, but the unmistakable storyline is competitiveness.

Then came perhaps the biggest flashing political billboard yet.

On August 20, the respected Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up,” citing public and private polling showing a race too competitive to continue treating Texas as reliably Republican.

That is no small accomplishment in a state where Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate election since 1988.

Talarico Is Talking — and Texans Are Hearing Him

Money is helping him carry that message.

Federal filings show Talarico had raised approximately $68.6 million through June, dwarfing Paxton’s roughly $9.2 million. Even more striking is the television battlefield: according to AdImpact data reported by The Texas Tribune, Talarico has spent more than $25 million advertising since the general election began, while Paxton’s campaign had spent only about $119,000—a greater than 200-to-1 difference.

Texans have seen Talarico talking about grocery prices, faith, family and affordability. Hispanic Texans have also seen a Spanish-language campaign message designed to meet voters where they are—not simply during election season, but culturally and conversationally.

Republicans are responding. A Ted Cruz-aligned super PAC recently launched a $1.7 million advertising campaign supporting Paxton, including television placements in Houston, while President Donald Trump is scheduled to appear in Houston August 27 as Republican fundraising efforts intensify.

Translation: Texas is getting expensive because Texas is getting competitive.

Houston Could Help Write the Ending

For Talarico, the road to history runs straight through Houston and Harris County.

His Pasadena outreach to Hispanic families, appeal to younger voters, emphasis on public education and working-class economics, and deliberate effort to court Republicans uneasy with Paxton form the outline of an ambitious coalition.

No Democrat can win Texas on enthusiasm alone. Talarico will need enormous turnout in Harris County, Dallas County, Bexar County and the state’s other urban centers—while improving Democratic performance in suburbs and persuading independents and some Republicans that this election should be about more than the letter beside a candidate’s name.

That is difficult.

But “difficult” and “impossible” are no longer synonyms in the 2026 Texas Senate race.

Abbott may be confident Paxton will ultimately prevail. Paxton’s supporters have every right to make their case. Talarico has the same opportunity.

And that is exactly how democracy is supposed to work.

Texas voters—not governors, billionaires, political consultants or party establishments—get the final word.

When early voting begins Monday, October 19, followed by Election Day Tuesday, November 3, Texans will decide whether nearly four decades of Republican U.S. Senate victories continue—or whether James Talarico turns a summer toss-up into a November political earthquake.

For the first time in a long time, Texas Democrats have more than hope. They have a race.

 

Here’s the official Texas Secretary of State online voter portal:

Texas My Voter Portal — Check Registration

You can use it to check voter-registration status, find your VUID, and view voting/polling information.