Democrat Letitia Plummer leads Republican Orlando Sanchez by seven percentage points in the race for Harris County judge, according to a new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey that found widespread dissatisfaction with the county’s direction and opposition to a recent property tax increase.

The survey, conducted Oct. 3-8, 2026, included 2,750 participants in Harris County and reported candidate preferences among likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, according to the University of Houston.

Plummer, a former Houston City Council member, received 47% support among likely voters, compared with 40% for Sanchez. The findings show Democratic candidates leading in three closely watched county races less than a month before the Nov. 3 general election. Early voting begins Oct. 19.

Despite the Democratic candidates’ leads, the survey found considerable dissatisfaction with the direction of government. Seventy-one percent of respondents said Harris County is headed in the wrong direction. Another 67% said the same about the United States, while 63% expressed that view about Texas.

Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said voters remain concerned about crime and property taxes. The survey found that 72% disapprove of the recent 7.6% property tax increase approved by Harris County Commissioners Court.

However, dissatisfaction with the county’s direction has not translated into a lead for Republican candidates in the county judge and commissioner races examined in the survey.

Democrats Lead in County Commissioner Races

Incumbent Harris County Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia leads Republican challenger Richard Vega, 52% to 40%, according to the survey.

In the Precinct 4 commissioner race, incumbent Lesley Briones leads Republican Steve Radack, 49% to 41%. Radack previously served as Precinct 3 commissioner for more than 30 years before leaving office in 2020.

The survey found that Democratic candidates held advantages among younger voters across all three races, while Republican candidates performed better among older voters.

In the county judge race, Plummer led Sanchez by 41 percentage points among voters ages 18 to 34 and by 13 points among those ages 35 to 54. Sanchez led by 10 points among voters 55 and older.

Plummer also led among women, 54% to 34%; Black voters, 86% to 8%; and Latino voters, 48% to 38%. Sanchez led among white voters, 52% to 35%.

The age differences were also evident in the commissioner races. Garcia led Vega by 29 points among voters ages 18 to 34 and by 18 points among those ages 35 to 54. Vega held a two-point advantage among voters 55 and older.

Briones led Radack by 42 points among voters ages 18 to 34 and by 22 points among those ages 35 to 54. Radack led by 13 points among voters 55 and older.

Mark P. Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and a senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said Republican advantages among white and older voters were not enough to offset Democratic support among younger voters.

Crime, Property Taxes and Voting Rights Shape Voter Priorities

Crime and public safety ranked as the leading issue influencing voter preferences in the county judge race, identified by 26% of respondents. Property taxes followed at 20%, while voting rights ranked third at 15%.

The issues differed considerably depending on which candidate respondents supported.

Among Plummer supporters, 40% identified voting rights as a leading concern, followed by racial equity and equality at 28% and health care at 20%.

Sanchez supporters prioritized crime and public safety, with 73% identifying it as a concern. Property taxes followed at 59%, while 22% cited candidates’ political party.

The findings show differing priorities among supporters of the two candidates, ranging from public safety and taxation to voting rights, health care and racial equity.

The survey also examined public opinion on the use of Flock cameras for law enforcement in Harris County. A majority of respondents, 56%, opposed their use, while 40% approved.

Commissioners Court Members Receive Positive Ratings

Despite the county’s overall negative outlook, all four members of Harris County Commissioners Court received positive net favorability ratings.

Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis recorded a net favorability rating of 24 points, followed by Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia at 13 points, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey at 27 points and Precinct 4 Commissioner Lesley Briones at seven points.

However, a substantial share of respondents said they did not know enough about Ramsey and Briones to form an opinion. That included 45% for Ramsey and 37% for Briones.

County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who is not seeking reelection, recorded the highest unfavorable rating among the officials included in the survey. Sixty-three percent of respondents viewed Hidalgo unfavorably, while 30% expressed a favorable opinion.

Senate Race Shows Wider Democratic Lead

The survey also examined the U.S. Senate race in Texas, finding Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 22 percentage points among Harris County voters.

That advantage is more than three times Plummer’s seven-point lead over Sanchez in the county judge race.

The findings offer a snapshot of voter preferences and concerns in Harris County ahead of the November election. While Democratic candidates lead in the three county races included in the survey, dissatisfaction with government, property taxes and public safety remains prominent among respondents.

The Hobby School said additional reports will examine statewide elections, the race for Texas Congressional District 9, Latino and rural voters, public attitudes toward data centers, and the possibility of bringing a National Hockey League team and hockey arena to Harris County.

The full survey report, including additional findings and methodology, is available through the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.