James Talarico’s bid to become the first Democrat in a generation to win statewide in Texas after three decades of disappointments is in its final stretch.

The Democratic state representative is set to appear on CNN at 8 p.m. ET Wednesday for a joint town hall with Jubilee, moderated by Erin Burnett.

It comes just days before early voting begins in Talarico’s race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the most important contests on the map, as Democrats seek the net gain of four seats they’d need to win majority control of the Senate.

In a sign of how critical the Texas race is to both parties, spending on television advertisements surpassed $500 million this week, according to AdImpact.

Here’s what to watch in Talarico’s town hall:

The man vs. the myth

Talarico dropped off the campaign trail for several days before making multiple public appearances this past weekend — an absence his campaign chalked up to a bad case of the flu.

But conservative influencers spun up a much different explanation. Some pushed a hoax that Talarico had been at a mental health facility in Ohio — claims that were amplified by Paxton’s allies on social media.

That claim was debunked by the mental health center in question, which released an extraordinarily unusual statement making clear that Talarico had never been there, as well as by Talarico’s campaign, which provided time-stamped security camera images showing him at his home each day of his absence.

It was the latest in a series of fabrications Talarico has faced during his Senate run. Perhaps the most common among them: The claim that he is a vegan. (Talarico responded to that claim this spring by posting on social media a photo of himself biting into a turkey leg at the Texas State Fair.)

Republicans are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on campaign ads against Talarico. In ads, speeches by President Donald Trump and other allies of Paxton and on conservative social media channels, Texans are being introduced to a candidate that pushes what Republicans describe as transgender ideology, opposes the state’s energy industry and won’t eat Texas’ famous barbecue.

“While we may laugh at James Talarico for all of the goofy stuff that he says, the simple fact is, he is dead serious. He is crazy, and we cannot elect ‘Tala-freako’ to the US Senate,” Vice President JD Vance said while campaigning Tuesday in Texas.

The town hall will afford the state lawmaker an opportunity to counter that image — and to highlight the parts of his profile, including his studies as a seminary student, that helped him rocket to fame early this year.

It’s a format Talarico has shown he’s comfortable with. He spoke with 20 undecided voters in a Jubilee town hall last December. And his two-and-a-half hour appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast in the summer of 2025 — the one in which Rogan told Talarico that he should be president — helped jump-start Talarico’s political aspirations.

Paxton’s corruption vs. backing the team

Talarico will also look to go on offense, and he’s likely to use the town hall to cast Paxton as corrupt — a message that has been the focus of many of the ads aired by the Democrat and his allies.

The latest damaging story about Paxton came Monday when The Wall Street Journal reported that he’d spent New Year’s Eve of 2024 partying in Dubai with a girlfriend and two fugitives who had been indicted in the United States on health care fraud charges. (A Paxton spokesperson told the Journal that Paxton had been “politically persecuted” but didn’t directly address the Dubai trip.)

But Paxton has faced a long line of ethics controversies. He was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015. In 2023, the Texas House impeached him after Paxton requested more than $3 million in state funds to settle whistleblower complaints tied to allegations of corruption and abuse of office. (Paxton has also generally dismissed those allegations as politically motivated; he was acquitted by the state Senate.)

 Ken Paxton

His estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in July 2025 “on biblical grounds,” alleging adultery.

It all helps explain why many Republicans lobbied Trump not to do what he ultimately did: endorse Paxton in his successful bid to oust Republican Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff earlier this year.

But until a Democrat proves otherwise, Texas remains a reliably Republican state. And the question Talarico faces is whether he can convince Republicans who have deep misgivings about Paxton to break with the party — or at least stay home.

Urging those long-time GOP voters to stick with the party’s ticket — even Paxton — is Angela Paxton. In an ad funded by a super PAC linked to Senate GOP leadership, the state senator avoids using her estranged husband’s name but tells viewers that “it’s not as much about the individual players on the team. It’s about getting the whole team across the finish line.”

“Either we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team,” she said in the ad, which began airing earlier this month.

How will Talarico reach independents, Republicans?

Talarico’s effort to court moderate voters and Republicans alienated by Paxton must overcome the GOP effort to portray him — as Vance described Talarico on Tuesday — as “a threat to your way of life.”

One of the thorniest issues for Talarico could be his past comments in support of transgender people. He said during a 2021 legislative debate that “God is nonbinary,” a comment he has since said “missed the mark.”

 

Talarico, and Democrats across the political map, have lambasted Trump’s war with Iran, which has sent gas prices soaring. He has said he’d seek to address the nation’s cost of living struggles by banning big investors from making single-family home purchases and providing first-time homebuyers with downpayment assistance, as well as repealing Trump’s tariffs and suspending the federal taxes on gas and diesel.

It’s up to Texas voters to decide whether those arguments outweigh the GOP’s efforts to portray Talarico as too liberal for the state — particularly on issues like transgender rights, immigration and more.