Young Voters Are Going to be Key to Winning 2020

Style Magazine Newswire | 1/3/2020, 12:40 p.m.
Politics is in realignment. And perhaps the most underappreciated change is this: Based on recent research at Tufts University's Tisch …

By CNN.com

Politics is in realignment. And perhaps the most underappreciated change is this: Based on recent research at Tufts University's Tisch College of Civic Life, young voters, ages 18-29, played a significant role in the 2018 midterms and are poised to shape elections in 2020 and beyond.

For decades, this age bracket has turned out at lower rates than older voters, particularly in midterm elections. While experts have often attributed this to apathy, a complicated set of reasons may explain low turnout, including barriers to access, suppression, waning civic education and historic disadvantages. Despite these headwinds, 2018 marked a turning point.

In 2018, the youth vote increased in all 42 states for which youth voting data is available, according to the analysis by researchers at Tufts' Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE). Based on this available data, which represents 94% of the American youth population, Tisch College researchers estimate 28.2% of young people nationwide voted in 2018 -- more than double the national youth turnout in 2014.

Turnout among college students -- an important subset of the youth vote -- was even more impressive in 2018, at 40.3%. Research also showed that young voters preferred Democrat House candidates by 35 points, a massive margin that helped Democrats win back the House and far exceeded the highest gap of 27 points from 2008.

National statistics set the scene, but the stories on the ground are even more compelling.

Both parties have long tried to activate young voters, but with limited success. In 2018, however, Katie Porter, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine who won California's 45th congressional district, hired an organizer specifically for campus outreach and campaigned on college campuses in the area.

In April 2018, Porter's campaign had been listed in the Youth Electoral Significance Index, produced by Tisch College's CIRCLE, as one of the top congressional races where young people could make the biggest impact, because of its youth population, prevalence of colleges, voter registration rates, historic turnout rates and turnout patterns where young people historically vote differently than older voters. Indeed, turnout in precincts on or near the UC Irvine campus surged in 2018, and outreach among young people has been credited as one reason for her victory.

Sen. Jon Tester's win in Montana and Rep. Ayanna Pressley's primary victory in the Massachusetts 7th District were also powered by youth turnout, according to research from CIRCLE.

Campaigns go where the votes are, and it's still true that older voters are more reliable voters, especially in midterm and off-year elections. But increasing youth participation can have a tremendous impact on elections at all levels. And research tells us that voting is habit-forming. Those who begin to vote early are more likely to vote often and throughout their lives.

One election cycle isn't a trend, but youth activists are certainly trendsetters when it comes to driving national conversations around public policy. On issues ranging from climate change to gun violence to voter suppression, young people are speaking up and encouraging their peers to register and vote, as we saw most recently during the climate strikes.

There is also increasing evidence that colleges and universities are getting involved. A recent report by Tisch College's Institute for Democracy & Higher Education found that half of colleges that responded are using their college-voting data to guide campus conversations about engagement, and nearly 60%are using that data to mobilize voters.